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Heat Pump vs Furnace (2026) | HeatPumpAtlasUSA

Comparison

Heat pump vs furnace, modelled state by state

Heat pump vs furnace is not a national answer. The gas industry says the furnace wins in 36 states. We ran EIA prices and published the result, including the states where the furnace is the better financial answer.

Written by HeatPumpAtlasUSA Editorial Updated How we calculate this

The short answer

A gas furnace is almost always cheaper to install. A heat pump is sometimes cheaper to run. Whether "sometimes" includes your house comes down to one ratio: what you pay for a kilowatt hour against what you pay for a therm.

Running our model across every state with a published residential gas price, the heat pump comes out cheaper to operate in 20 of 51 jurisdictions. That is not a landslide in either direction, and it is a more useful result than a slogan. The heat pump tends to win where gas is expensive relative to power, which includes much of New England, the Pacific Northwest and parts of the Midwest. It loses across much of the South and the plains.

There is a second factor that most comparisons ignore entirely: a heat pump also replaces your air conditioner. If your AC is near end of life, the real comparison is not furnace against heat pump. It is furnace plus AC against heat pump.

Delivered heating cost by state

Cost per million BTU of heat delivered into the house. Lower is better. A negative delta favours the heat pump.

Heat pump versus 90% AFUE gas furnace, cost per MMBtu delivered

  • Alabama

    Power
    16.4¢
    Gas / Mcf
    $22.64
    Heat pump
    $19.5
    Gas furnace
    $24.5
    Cheaper to run
    Heat pump

  • Alaska

    Power
    28.2¢
    Gas / Mcf
    $14.40
    Heat pump
    $33.5
    Gas furnace
    $15.6
    Cheaper to run
    Gas furnace

  • Arizona

    Power
    15.2¢
    Gas / Mcf
    $22.44
    Heat pump
    $18.0
    Gas furnace
    $24.3
    Cheaper to run
    Heat pump

  • Arkansas

    Power
    14.1¢
    Gas / Mcf
    $25.93
    Heat pump
    $16.8
    Gas furnace
    $28.1
    Cheaper to run
    Heat pump

  • California

    Power
    34.7¢
    Gas / Mcf
    $22.40
    Heat pump
    $41.3
    Gas furnace
    $24.2
    Cheaper to run
    Gas furnace

  • Colorado

    Power
    17.1¢
    Gas / Mcf
    $11.92
    Heat pump
    $20.4
    Gas furnace
    $12.9
    Cheaper to run
    Gas furnace

  • Connecticut

    Power
    24.3¢
    Gas / Mcf
    $23.33
    Heat pump
    $28.9
    Gas furnace
    $25.2
    Cheaper to run
    Gas furnace

  • Delaware

    Power
    19.3¢
    Gas / Mcf
    $22.51
    Heat pump
    $22.9
    Gas furnace
    $24.4
    Cheaper to run
    Heat pump

  • District of Columbia

    Power
    24.4¢
    Gas / Mcf
    $20.50
    Heat pump
    $29.0
    Gas furnace
    $22.2
    Cheaper to run
    Gas furnace

  • Florida

    Power
    15.1¢
    Gas / Mcf
    $28.00
    Heat pump
    $18.0
    Gas furnace
    $30.3
    Cheaper to run
    Heat pump

  • Georgia

    Power
    16.4¢
    Gas / Mcf
    $33.28
    Heat pump
    $19.5
    Gas furnace
    $36.0
    Cheaper to run
    Heat pump

  • Hawaii

    Power
    52.7¢
    Gas / Mcf
    $40.00
    Heat pump
    $62.7
    Gas furnace
    $43.3
    Cheaper to run
    Gas furnace

  • Idaho

    Power
    14.4¢
    Gas / Mcf
    $10.82
    Heat pump
    $17.1
    Gas furnace
    $11.7
    Cheaper to run
    Gas furnace

  • Illinois

    Power
    19.9¢
    Gas / Mcf
    $15.39
    Heat pump
    $23.6
    Gas furnace
    $16.7
    Cheaper to run
    Gas furnace

  • Indiana

    Power
    17.5¢
    Gas / Mcf
    $13.70
    Heat pump
    $20.8
    Gas furnace
    $14.8
    Cheaper to run
    Gas furnace

  • Iowa

    Power
    15.9¢
    Gas / Mcf
    $15.72
    Heat pump
    $18.9
    Gas furnace
    $17.0
    Cheaper to run
    Gas furnace

  • Kansas

    Power
    15.7¢
    Gas / Mcf
    $25.12
    Heat pump
    $18.7
    Gas furnace
    $27.2
    Cheaper to run
    Heat pump

  • Kentucky

    Power
    14.3¢
    Gas / Mcf
    $29.48
    Heat pump
    $17.0
    Gas furnace
    $31.9
    Cheaper to run
    Heat pump

  • Louisiana

    Power
    13.5¢
    Gas / Mcf
    $24.00
    Heat pump
    $16.0
    Gas furnace
    $26.0
    Cheaper to run
    Heat pump

  • Maine

    Power
    29.6¢
    Gas / Mcf
    $21.00
    Heat pump
    $35.2
    Gas furnace
    $22.7
    Cheaper to run
    Gas furnace

  • Maryland

    Power
    21.8¢
    Gas / Mcf
    $18.94
    Heat pump
    $26.0
    Gas furnace
    $20.5
    Cheaper to run
    Gas furnace

  • Massachusetts

    Power
    29.6¢
    Gas / Mcf
    $31.39
    Heat pump
    $35.2
    Gas furnace
    $34.0
    Cheaper to run
    Gas furnace

  • Michigan

    Power
    23.0¢
    Gas / Mcf
    $14.07
    Heat pump
    $27.3
    Gas furnace
    $15.2
    Cheaper to run
    Gas furnace

  • Minnesota

    Power
    17.5¢
    Gas / Mcf
    $14.95
    Heat pump
    $20.8
    Gas furnace
    $16.2
    Cheaper to run
    Gas furnace

  • Mississippi

    Power
    14.9¢
    Gas / Mcf
    $27.68
    Heat pump
    $17.7
    Gas furnace
    $29.9
    Cheaper to run
    Heat pump

  • Missouri

    Power
    16.2¢
    Gas / Mcf
    $24.13
    Heat pump
    $19.3
    Gas furnace
    $26.1
    Cheaper to run
    Heat pump

  • Montana

    Power
    15.1¢
    Gas / Mcf
    $8.77
    Heat pump
    $18.0
    Gas furnace
    $9.5
    Cheaper to run
    Gas furnace

  • Nebraska

    Power
    13.3¢
    Gas / Mcf
    $15.53
    Heat pump
    $15.8
    Gas furnace
    $16.8
    Cheaper to run
    Heat pump

  • Nevada

    Power
    13.1¢
    Gas / Mcf
    $12.09
    Heat pump
    $15.6
    Gas furnace
    $13.1
    Cheaper to run
    Gas furnace

  • New Hampshire

    Power
    27.0¢
    Gas / Mcf
    $24.53
    Heat pump
    $32.1
    Gas furnace
    $26.5
    Cheaper to run
    Gas furnace

  • New Jersey

    Power
    24.9¢
    Gas / Mcf
    $20.37
    Heat pump
    $29.7
    Gas furnace
    $22.0
    Cheaper to run
    Gas furnace

  • New Mexico

    Power
    15.1¢
    Gas / Mcf
    $16.00
    Heat pump
    $17.9
    Gas furnace
    $17.3
    Cheaper to run
    Gas furnace

  • New York

    Power
    29.5¢
    Gas / Mcf
    $20.70
    Heat pump
    $35.1
    Gas furnace
    $22.4
    Cheaper to run
    Gas furnace

  • North Carolina

    Power
    14.7¢
    Gas / Mcf
    $26.00
    Heat pump
    $17.5
    Gas furnace
    $28.1
    Cheaper to run
    Heat pump

  • North Dakota

    Power
    14.1¢
    Gas / Mcf
    $12.50
    Heat pump
    $16.8
    Gas furnace
    $13.5
    Cheaper to run
    Gas furnace

  • Ohio

    Power
    19.2¢
    Gas / Mcf
    $14.50
    Heat pump
    $22.8
    Gas furnace
    $15.7
    Cheaper to run
    Gas furnace

  • Oklahoma

    Power
    14.3¢
    Gas / Mcf
    $24.00
    Heat pump
    $17.0
    Gas furnace
    $26.0
    Cheaper to run
    Heat pump

  • Oregon

    Power
    16.3¢
    Gas / Mcf
    $16.50
    Heat pump
    $19.4
    Gas furnace
    $17.9
    Cheaper to run
    Gas furnace

  • Pennsylvania

    Power
    21.7¢
    Gas / Mcf
    $19.80
    Heat pump
    $25.8
    Gas furnace
    $21.4
    Cheaper to run
    Gas furnace

  • Rhode Island

    Power
    29.2¢
    Gas / Mcf
    $16.06
    Heat pump
    $34.8
    Gas furnace
    $17.4
    Cheaper to run
    Gas furnace

  • South Carolina

    Power
    15.6¢
    Gas / Mcf
    $27.35
    Heat pump
    $18.5
    Gas furnace
    $29.6
    Cheaper to run
    Heat pump

  • South Dakota

    Power
    15.4¢
    Gas / Mcf
    $10.95
    Heat pump
    $18.3
    Gas furnace
    $11.8
    Cheaper to run
    Gas furnace

  • Tennessee

    Power
    14.1¢
    Gas / Mcf
    $16.83
    Heat pump
    $16.7
    Gas furnace
    $18.2
    Cheaper to run
    Heat pump

  • Texas

    Power
    15.9¢
    Gas / Mcf
    $30.48
    Heat pump
    $19.0
    Gas furnace
    $33.0
    Cheaper to run
    Heat pump

  • Utah

    Power
    13.4¢
    Gas / Mcf
    $10.26
    Heat pump
    $15.9
    Gas furnace
    $11.1
    Cheaper to run
    Gas furnace

  • Vermont

    Power
    24.4¢
    Gas / Mcf
    $20.31
    Heat pump
    $29.1
    Gas furnace
    $22.0
    Cheaper to run
    Gas furnace

  • Virginia

    Power
    17.2¢
    Gas / Mcf
    $23.66
    Heat pump
    $20.5
    Gas furnace
    $25.6
    Cheaper to run
    Heat pump

  • Washington

    Power
    14.9¢
    Gas / Mcf
    $20.41
    Heat pump
    $17.7
    Gas furnace
    $22.1
    Cheaper to run
    Heat pump

  • West Virginia

    Power
    15.4¢
    Gas / Mcf
    $24.68
    Heat pump
    $18.4
    Gas furnace
    $26.7
    Cheaper to run
    Heat pump

  • Wisconsin

    Power
    19.6¢
    Gas / Mcf
    $11.79
    Heat pump
    $23.3
    Gas furnace
    $12.8
    Cheaper to run
    Gas furnace

  • Wyoming

    Power
    15.2¢
    Gas / Mcf
    $13.31
    Heat pump
    $18.1
    Gas furnace
    $14.4
    Cheaper to run
    Gas furnace
Heat pump modelled at seasonal coefficient of performance 2.47 including 15% duct loss. Gas at 90% AFUE. Electricity is EIA residential June 2026. Gas is EIA residential May 2026, published per Mcf and converted using 10.27 therms per Mcf. States without a published residential gas price are omitted.

Beyond running cost

Eight criteria, and the honest winner on each. Note how many the furnace takes.

Heat pump versus gas furnace by criterion

  • Up-front installed cost

    Gas furnace
    Heat pump
    $9,500 to $22,000 for a ducted system
    Gas furnace
    $3,800 to $12,000 for a replacement

    The furnace wins clearly on day one, unless the AC is also being replaced.

  • Cooling included

    Heat pump
    Heat pump
    Yes, the same system cools in summer
    Gas furnace
    No, you need a separate air conditioner

    This is the single biggest factor most comparisons leave out.

  • Operating cost, cold climate

    Depends
    Heat pump
    Wins in high gas price states
    Gas furnace
    Wins in low gas price, high power states

    See the state table on this page. Twenty-seven of fifty-one states favour the heat pump in our model.

  • Lifespan

    Gas furnace
    Heat pump
    12 to 20 years, compressor-limited
    Gas furnace
    15 to 25 years

    Furnaces are mechanically simpler and generally last longer.

  • Maintenance

    Depends
    Heat pump
    Annual service, filters, coils
    Gas furnace
    Annual service, filters, heat exchanger check

    Comparable in cost. Heat pumps have more components and more to fail.

  • Cold weather performance

    Gas furnace
    Heat pump
    Below zero, output and efficiency both fall
    Gas furnace
    Unaffected by outdoor temperature

    The reason cold-climate rated equipment is worth specifying, and why backup heat exists.

  • Health and safety

    Heat pump
    Heat pump
    No combustion, no carbon monoxide risk
    Gas furnace
    Combustion appliance, needs venting and CO monitoring

  • Future fuel exposure

    Depends
    Heat pump
    Exposed to electricity prices
    Gas furnace
    Exposed to gas prices and any carbon policy

    Both are fuel price bets. Neither is a hedge.

Verdicts are our assessment from the modelling on this page and published equipment data, not a manufacturer claim.

Taking the gas industry argument seriously

The American Gas Association published a claim that gas wins in 36 states. It is worth engaging with rather than dismissing.

The AGA's analysis compares the least efficient gas furnace against the most efficient heat pump and argues the furnace still wins in 36 states. Their conclusion is not absurd, and anyone who tells you the heat pump always wins on running cost is selling something.

Our model reaches a narrower result because of three differences in method. We use a seasonal coefficient of performance rather than a peak rated figure, we apply a 15 percent duct loss to ducted heat pumps, and we use current EIA state prices rather than a long-run price assumption. Those choices move several states across the line.

The honest conclusion is that the answer is genuinely state-dependent, and that both sides can produce a defensible map. Which is exactly why a ZIP-level model is more useful than a national claim, and why we built one.

The option that ends the argument

A dual fuel system uses each machine where it is best. In cold climates with cheap gas, it is often the right answer.

A dual fuel system pairs a heat pump with a gas furnace and switches between them by outdoor temperature. Above the balance point the heat pump runs, because it is efficient and cheap. Below it the furnace runs, because the heat pump's capacity and efficiency have both fallen off.

This is not a compromise for people who cannot decide. In a 7,000 degree day climate with a low gas price and a high power price, it can genuinely beat either system alone. Ask your contractor to model the balance point rather than defaulting to a fixed temperature, because the right switchover varies with your equipment, your rate and your house.

Ask installers to price this job, not a different one

The range is already on this site, and the calculator will give you a ZIP-level number for free. What you do not have is a bid that uses the same scope. We send your ZIP and that range to installers who work the market, and we tell them to quote that job. You get the emails. You decide.

  • We attach the modeled range so the bid has to price that job, not a sales package
  • You also get a one-page brief you can hand to any contractor you found yourself
  • Phone is optional. No account. If nobody covers your ZIP yet, you still get the brief

Installers pay for the introduction in markets we cover. That is how the site is funded. Read the privacy policy and the money model.

Frequently asked questions

Is a heat pump cheaper than a gas furnace?
On installed cost, no. A gas furnace replacement is usually several thousand dollars cheaper. On running cost, it depends on your state, and our model shows the heat pump winning in 27 of the 51 jurisdictions with published gas prices. The ratio that matters is your electricity price divided by your gas price. Where gas is cheap and power is expensive, the furnace wins, and that is a real result, not a rounding error.
What about the gas industry claim that furnaces win in 36 states?
The American Gas Association has published analysis arguing the least efficient gas furnace is cheaper to run than the most efficient electric heat pump in 36 states. Our model finds the heat pump winning in 27 of 51 jurisdictions, using EIA state prices and a seasonal coefficient of performance of about 2.47 including duct losses. The difference is mostly methodology: how you handle duct losses, what seasonal efficiency you assign, and whether you compare at current prices or across price volatility. Both results are within the range of defensible modelling, which tells you the honest answer is that it varies by state and neither side should claim a landslide.
Does a heat pump replace my air conditioner?
Yes, and this is the argument that most changes the economic case. If your air conditioner is near the end of its life, the alternative to a heat pump is not a furnace. It is a furnace plus a new central air conditioner. Once you price both, the gap narrows substantially, and in some cases closes.
What is a dual fuel system and do I want one?
A dual fuel system pairs a heat pump with a gas furnace as backup. The heat pump runs in mild weather where it is efficient, and the furnace takes over below a set outdoor temperature where the heat pump is losing efficiency. In a cold climate with cheap gas, this is often the genuinely best answer, and it is worth asking about rather than treating the choice as binary.
How long until a heat pump pays back versus a furnace?
If the heat pump costs $8,000 more up front and saves $400 a year on running costs, the simple payback is 20 years, which is longer than the equipment lasts. If it saves $1,200 a year, payback is under seven years, which is a good decision. The calculator produces this figure for your ZIP, and it will show no payback when there is no payback rather than manufacturing a number.

Sources and data

Verified

Green dot marks a primary government, program or utility source. Grey dot marks a secondary benchmark or editorial reference. Our full method, including how modelled figures are produced, is on the methodology page.