Will a heat pump raise my electric bill? Yes. That is the question homeowners actually ask, and it is the one most heat pump content answers dishonestly by talking about efficiency instead of bills.
Start with the honest answer
Your electric bill will rise. You are moving a large load, space heating, onto electricity, and in a cold climate that load is substantial. Anyone who tells you otherwise is either confused or selling something.
The reason the switch can still save money is simple: the fuel you stop buying is usually more expensive per unit of heat than the electricity you start buying. A heat pump moves two to three units of heat per unit of electricity, so even at a high power price it can beat oil, propane or electric resistance. Against cheap natural gas, it often cannot.
The numbers
For a typical 1,800 square foot home in a 5,000 degree day climate, a cold-climate heat pump adds roughly 7,000 to 9,000 kilowatt hours per year of space heating load. At the national average residential rate of about 18 cents per kilowatt hour, that is roughly $1,300 to $1,600 per year on the electric bill.
That is the number to prepare for. What offsets it is the fuel bill you no longer pay. If you were spending $2,800 a year on heating oil, the arithmetical question is whether the new $1,500 electric increase is smaller than the $2,800 you stopped spending. It usually is, and by a wide margin.
If you were spending $900 a year on natural gas, the same arithmetic goes the other way, and the heat pump may cost you money.
The operating cost page shows which states fall into which category, and the calculator produces the specific figure for your ZIP and your fuel.
Why the electric line rises more than people expect
Three reasons, and all three are worth understanding before the first winter.
Backup heat. If the system uses electric resistance elements when it is very cold, and the system was sized or configured poorly, those elements can run far more than expected. That is a large, direct electric load and it shows up quickly. It is the most common reason a real bill misses a model.
Short cycling. An oversized heat pump reaches its setpoint quickly, shuts off, and restarts. That is less efficient in practice than the rated performance, and it also wears the equipment. Correct sizing matters more than the equipment tier.
A leakier house than assumed. The model uses your square footage, vintage and an insulation estimate. If the house is draftier than that, the load is larger and the bill is larger with it.
All three point at the same conclusion: the quality of the installation matters more than the brand on the box.
The rate question
Before you assume you will pay the standard residential rate, ask your utility directly. Several offer a seasonal heat pump rate that is lower during the heating season, and some require enrolment that is not automatic.
This is more valuable than most homeowners expect. A rate reduction applies every year, whereas a rebate applies once. In Massachusetts, where electricity runs near 30 cents per kilowatt hour, the seasonal rate can be worth more over ten years than the capital incentive. Ask the question before you size the system, so you can model the right number.
The honest test
The cleanest way to decide is to price both paths before you commit, which is what the calculator does. If it shows your total energy cost falling, the project is financially sound on operating cost. If it shows the total rising, then the case rests on comfort, cooling, incentives or avoiding a fuel you dislike, and those are legitimate reasons as long as you know that is what you are buying.
What you should not do is accept an estimate that shows a large saving without showing you the rate it used. If a contractor quotes a saving, ask which electricity price and which gas or oil price they used. If those numbers do not match your bills, the saving is not yours.
Written by HeatPumpAtlasUSA Editorial , reviewed by HeatPumpAtlasUSA Editorial , and updated . Sources are listed below. If a figure looks wrong, contact editorial.