HeatPumpAtlasUSA
Heat Pump Cost Calculator | HeatPumpAtlasUSA

Heat pump cost calculator

A free heat pump cost calculator for US homes. It models heat pump installation cost, heat pump operating cost, and only the heat pump rebates that are actually open in your state.

  1. Your home
  2. Systems
  3. Your estimate

Where is the home?

ZIP code sets your electricity price, climate and which local programs apply. It never leaves your browser in this step.

Enter a five digit ZIP to continue.

Conditioned space only. Do not count a basement you do not heat.

What heats the home today?

Enter a valid ZIP code to continue.

The cost bands behind the model

These are the same bands the calculator scales by your region. They include equipment, standard labor and a permit. They exclude ductwork, electrical upgrades and anything a contractor discovers after opening a wall.

Installed cost bands used by the calculator

  • Like-for-like replacement of an existing ducted system

    Low
    $7,000
    High
    $16,000
    Existing ducts
    Required

  • Ducted air source heat pump, new install

    Low
    $9,500
    High
    $22,000
    Existing ducts
    Required

  • Cold-climate ducted heat pump

    Low
    $12,000
    High
    $28,000
    Existing ducts
    Required

  • Single-zone ductless mini split

    Low
    $2,800
    High
    $8,500
    Existing ducts
    Not used

  • Multi-zone ductless mini split

    Low
    $6,500
    High
    $20,000
    Existing ducts
    Not used

  • Geothermal ground source heat pump

    Low
    $18,000
    High
    $45,000
    Existing ducts
    Required

  • Heat pump water heater, installed

    Low
    $1,800
    High
    $5,200
    Existing ducts
    Not used

  • Electrical panel upgrade to 200A

    Low
    $1,400
    High
    $5,500
    Existing ducts
    Not used
Regional factors range from 0.92 in the South to 1.20 in the West, with an additional 1.12 factor in high-cost states including California, Massachusetts, New York, Connecticut and Washington.

How the calculation works

The model runs in four stages. Each stage is a pure function with no network access.

  1. Resolve geography. Your ZIP maps to a state, which supplies the residential electricity price from the EIA, the natural gas price from the EIA, and population-weighted heating degree days from NOAA.
  2. Estimate the heating load. If you entered an annual heating spend, we back the load out of it using your current fuel and its assumed efficiency, which is the most accurate path. Otherwise we model it from floor area, degree days, envelope quality and build vintage.
  3. Apply system efficiency. A ducted heat pump is modelled at a seasonal coefficient of performance of 2.6, cold-climate ducted at 2.9, and ductless at 3, each reduced by duct losses of 15 percent for ducted systems and 2 percent for ductless.
  4. Compare and total. We price the same delivered heat from your current system, subtract it from the heat pump, add only the rebates marked open, and produce a 10-year total and a simple payback.

The full published method, including the limitations and the reasoning behind each constant, is on the methodology page.

Privacy

The calculator has no analytics inside it and sends nothing. It runs against a bundled data table. Nothing is collected unless you ask us to email the estimate, and that request only carries the details you can see on the form.

Frequently asked questions

What does the heat pump cost calculator include?
It models heat pump installation cost, heat pump operating cost against your current fuel, only the heat pump rebates we have verified as open, and a 10-year total with simple payback. Enter a ZIP, floor area and fuel to get a local range.
How accurate is this calculator?
It is accurate about energy economics and approximate about contractor pricing. Electricity prices, climate and fuel comparisons come from published federal data, so those figures are reliable within a few percent. Installed cost is a modelled regional range and can be off by 30 percent in either direction, because two contractors bidding the same job routinely differ by that much. If you enter your actual annual heating spend, the operating cost estimate tightens considerably.
Why does it sometimes say a heat pump will cost me more?
Because in many states it will. A modern gas furnace burning $12 to $20 gas can beat a heat pump running on 20 to 30 cent electricity, especially in milder climates where the heat pump gets less annual runtime to amortise anything. Oil and propane are a different story, which is why the Northeast and rural markets show the strongest case. A calculator that always produces a saving is a sales tool, not a model.
Does the ZIP code leave my browser?
No. The cost model runs entirely in your browser against a bundled table of state energy and climate data. Nothing is collected or transmitted unless you ask us to email the estimate, and that request is a deliberate separate action.
Are the rebate figures live?
They are hand-verified rather than scraped. We track a short list of programs and record a status for each one. Programs marked Open are included in your after-rebate total, and paused or reserved programs are excluded and labelled. Because these programs fund out mid-year, confirm the current amount with the program before you sign anything.
What is missing from the model?
It does not know your actual utility tariff, your specific duct condition, your home air leakage measured rather than estimated, or whether your contractor is good. It also assumes the heat pump is correctly sized, which is the most common reason real-world results miss a model by a wide margin. Treat the output as a range to interrogate quotes with, not a quote.

Sources and data

Verified

Green dot marks a primary government, program or utility source. Grey dot marks a secondary benchmark or editorial reference. Our full method, including how modelled figures are produced, is on the methodology page.

Ask installers to price this job, not a different one

The range is already on this site, and the calculator will give you a ZIP-level number for free. What you do not have is a bid that uses the same scope. We send your ZIP and that range to installers who work the market, and we tell them to quote that job. You get the emails. You decide.

  • We attach the modeled range so the bid has to price that job, not a sales package
  • You also get a one-page brief you can hand to any contractor you found yourself
  • Phone is optional. No account. If nobody covers your ZIP yet, you still get the brief

Installers pay for the introduction in markets we cover. That is how the site is funded. Read the privacy policy and the money model.