HeatPumpAtlasUSA
Heat Pump Cost 2026: Prices, Rebates | HeatPumpAtlasUSA
Air source heat pump outdoor unit installed beside a home

Independent US heat pump cost data

Heat pump cost in the US, and whether switching pays off where you live.

Heat pump cost for a typical ducted system is $9,500 to $22,000 installed. This calculator models heat pump installation cost, operating cost, and the heat pump rebates that are actually open in your state, including the cases where a gas furnace still wins. Run it on the right.

Ducted system
$9.5k–$22k
Mini split, 1 zone
$2.8k–$8.5k
US power price
18.34¢/kWh
No account needed Your inputs stay in the browser. Email is only asked if you want the estimate sent to you.
  1. Your home
  2. Systems
  3. Your estimate

Where is the home?

ZIP code sets your electricity price, climate and which local programs apply. It never leaves your browser in this step.

Enter a five digit ZIP to continue.

Conditioned space only. Do not count a basement you do not heat.

What heats the home today?

Enter a valid ZIP code to continue.

Every number traces to public data

Start with the question you already have

These are the branded rebates, the calculator, and the yes-or-no questions people type. If you already know what you need, skip the national ranges.

Heat pump installation cost, before incentives

These bands cover equipment, standard labor and a permit for a typical 1,800 to 2,200 square foot home. They deliberately overlap, because a quote depends on your ducts, your panel and your contractor's week.

US installed heat pump and mini split cost ranges, 2026

  • Ducted air source heat pump, new install

    Low
    $9,500
    High
    $22,000
    Existing ducts
    Required

  • Like-for-like replacement of an existing ducted system

    Low
    $7,000
    High
    $16,000
    Existing ducts
    Required

  • Cold-climate ducted heat pump

    Low
    $12,000
    High
    $28,000
    Existing ducts
    Required

  • Single-zone ductless mini split

    Low
    $2,800
    High
    $8,500
    Existing ducts
    Not used

  • Multi-zone ductless mini split

    Low
    $6,500
    High
    $20,000
    Existing ducts
    Not used

  • Heat pump water heater, installed

    Low
    $1,800
    High
    $5,200
    Existing ducts
    Not used
Ranges are modelled from published 2026 contractor and consumer pricing plus regional labor factors. They are not quotes. Add $1,400 to $5,500 if the project needs a 200 amp panel upgrade.
Full heat pump cost breakdown Mini split cost by zone Panel upgrade cost
Residential heat pump outdoor condenser unit, the equipment priced in the cost bands table
A typical outdoor unit for a ducted air source heat pump. Photo: Wikimedia Commons.

Heat pump cost calculator, step by step

A deterministic model, not a lead funnel. The same code that runs in your browser is documented in full, so you can check every number instead of trusting it.

  1. 01

    Resolve your ZIP

    Your ZIP maps to a state, which sets the residential electricity price from the EIA and population-weighted heating degree days from NOAA.

  2. 02

    Estimate the heating load

    From floor area, climate, insulation and build vintage, or backed straight out of the annual heating spend you enter.

  3. 03

    Compare and total

    We price the same delivered heat from your current fuel, add only the rebates marked open, and produce a 10-year total and payback.

Read the full method, assumptions and limitations on the methodology page.

Ductless mini splits

Mini split cost when you have no ducts

A single-zone ductless mini split heats and cools one room from roughly $2,800 to $8,500 installed. Multi-zone systems scale by the number of indoor heads, which is where quotes diverge most. We price it per zone so you can sanity-check a bid instead of guessing.

Mini split cost by zone
Ductless mini split indoor wall head mounted high on a room wall

Heat pump cost, rebates and comparisons

Each hub is built around a search demand we measured, from heat pump cost to mini split cost to heat pump vs furnace, and each one links back to the calculator so a national range becomes a local number.

Cold climate heat pumps

Do heat pumps work in cold weather? Yes. The question is running cost.

Modern cold-climate heat pumps hold capacity into the low teens Fahrenheit and below. The real decision is economic: against cheap natural gas the furnace can still win, while against oil and propane the heat pump usually wins outright. We model both instead of assuming one answer.

Heat pump vs furnace Cold weather guide
Cold climate heat pump outdoor unit running in snowy winter conditions

Heat pump vs furnace, oil and more

Six head-to-head breakdowns, each one modelled rather than assumed, including the cases where staying put is the cheaper answer.

See all comparisons

Heat pump cost by state

Ranked by a blend of cold-weather heating load, how much of the state still burns oil, and what electricity costs. These are the states where a heat pump project is most likely to be worth modelling.

Highest switching-pressure states, ranked

  • Alaska

    Electricity
    28.2¢
    Heating demand
    11,320
    Oil heat share
    52%
    Rebate status
    Live

  • Maine

    Electricity
    29.6¢
    Heating demand
    7,826
    Oil heat share
    56%
    Rebate status
    Reserved

  • Vermont

    Electricity
    24.4¢
    Heating demand
    8,283
    Oil heat share
    42%
    Rebate status
    Enrolling

  • New Hampshire

    Electricity
    27.0¢
    Heating demand
    7,000
    Oil heat share
    40%
    Rebate status
    Enrolling

  • Connecticut

    Electricity
    24.3¢
    Heating demand
    6,170
    Oil heat share
    40%
    Rebate status
    Enrolling

  • Rhode Island

    Electricity
    29.2¢
    Heating demand
    6,100
    Oil heat share
    30%
    Rebate status
    Enrolling

  • Massachusetts

    Electricity
    29.6¢
    Heating demand
    6,327
    Oil heat share
    24%
    Rebate status
    Enrolling

  • New York

    Electricity
    29.5¢
    Heating demand
    6,544
    Oil heat share
    19%
    Rebate status
    Live

  • Pennsylvania

    Electricity
    21.7¢
    Heating demand
    5,931
    Oil heat share
    16%
    Rebate status
    Enrolling

  • Minnesota

    Electricity
    17.5¢
    Heating demand
    8,021
    Oil heat share
    2%
    Rebate status
    Enrolling

  • North Dakota

    Electricity
    14.1¢
    Heating demand
    8,300
    Oil heat share
    1%
    Rebate status
    Not launched

  • Wisconsin

    Electricity
    19.6¢
    Heating demand
    7,292
    Oil heat share
    2%
    Rebate status
    Enrolling
Electricity: EIA residential average, June 2026. Heating demand: NOAA population-weighted heating degree days, July 2025 to June 2026. Oil share: Census ACS table B25040. Ranking is our own index and is a prioritisation tool, not a measurement.
See market-by-market analysis

Heat pump guides: worth it, sizing and bills

Long-form, sourced and updated. These are the plain-English answers people search for before they ever ask a contractor.

Browse the full guide library

Markets we cover in depth

We only publish a city page when we can say something specific about its fuel mix, its program and its contractor market. No templated city grid.

  • Boston, MA

    Enrolling
    Electricity
    29.6¢
    Heating load
    6,327
    Oil heat
    24%

    Oil and gas mix, a mature mass-market rebate, and the highest contractor density in New England.

    Heavy heating load

  • Portland, ME

    Reserved
    Electricity
    29.6¢
    Heating load
    7,826
    Oil heat
    56%

    The strongest oil-to-heat-pump case in the country on fuel economics alone.

    Severe heating load

  • Denver, CO

    Rebate live
    Electricity
    17.1¢
    Heating load
    5,514
    Oil heat
    0%

    Cold-climate equipment demand with a state credit and a utility rebate that stack.

    Heavy heating load

  • Seattle, WA

    Enrolling
    Electricity
    14.9¢
    Heating load
    5,051
    Oil heat
    3%

    Cheap hydro power, mild winters, and a state program for income-qualified households.

    Heavy heating load

Heat pump rebates we track

A short list, verified program by program, instead of a scraped database of every incentive in the country. If a program is reserved or funded out, we say so.

Priority states: Maine, Massachusetts, Vermont, New York, Connecticut, Rhode Island, New Hampshire, Colorado, Washington, Oregon, Minnesota, California.

Frequently asked questions

How much does a heat pump cost in the US?
A typical ducted air source heat pump costs $9,500 to $22,000 installed in 2026 before incentives. A like-for-like replacement that reuses ducts and line sets often lands between $7,000 and $16,000. Ductless mini split installation cost is $2,800 to $8,500 for one zone.
What is heat pump installation cost versus operating cost?
Installation cost is the contractor invoice. Operating cost is what you pay each year to run it. The heat pump cost calculator models both, then subtracts only rebates that are actually open, and compares the 10-year total to your current fuel.
Are heat pump rebates still available in 2026?
The federal 25C heat pump tax credit ended for equipment installed after 2025. State and utility heat pump rebates are still open in several markets, including the Mass Save heat pump rebate, the Efficiency Maine heat pump rebate, the NYSERDA heat pump rebate and Efficiency Vermont. We only count a program if we have verified it is accepting applications.
How much is the Mass Save heat pump rebate?
Whole-home Massachusetts projects can receive up to about $10,000. Partial-home projects are lower, generally $500 to $2,500, with a $500 sizing bonus in some cases. You usually need a reservation before installation. Read the Mass Save heat pump rebate page before you sign.
Do I need a panel upgrade for a heat pump?
Not always. A load calculation against your service and appliances decides it. A typical 200 amp electrical panel upgrade cost is $1,400 to $5,500 if you do need one. A single-zone mini split on a 200 amp panel with spare capacity usually fits without the upgrade.
Is a heat pump cheaper than a furnace?
On running cost, a heat pump beats oil, propane and electric resistance almost everywhere. Against a gas furnace it depends on your electricity-to-gas price ratio. Our heat pump vs furnace model has the heat pump winning in 27 of 51 states.

Ask installers to price this job, not a different one

The range is already on this site, and the calculator will give you a ZIP-level number for free. What you do not have is a bid that uses the same scope. We send your ZIP and that range to installers who work the market, and we tell them to quote that job. You get the emails. You decide.

  • We attach the modeled range so the bid has to price that job, not a sales package
  • You also get a one-page brief you can hand to any contractor you found yourself
  • Phone is optional. No account. If nobody covers your ZIP yet, you still get the brief

Installers pay for the introduction in markets we cover. That is how the site is funded. Read the privacy policy and the money model.