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Compare a heat pump to the system you already have
Seven head-to-head breakdowns, each one modelled on real EIA prices and NOAA climate data rather than assumed. Start with the featured comparison, then dig into the one that matches your house.
Featured: ducted heat pump vs gas furnace
The single most searched comparison, across six criteria that actually move the decision. The edge column names a winner on each row, including the rows where the furnace wins.
| Criterion | Ducted heat pump | Gas furnace | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Upfront installed cost | $9,500 to $22,000 for a ducted air source system, before incentives. | $4,500 to $9,000 for a gas furnace, if a gas line already exists. | Gas furnace The furnace is cheaper to install almost everywhere. The gap narrows once rebates and the value of built-in cooling are counted. |
| Annual running cost | Low where electricity is cheap or the incumbent fuel is oil or propane. | Low where natural gas is cheap and the climate is mild. | Depends This is the whole game, and it flips by state. Model your ZIP in the calculator. |
| Cooling included | Yes. A heat pump is an air conditioner that also heats. | No. A furnace heats only, so you still buy and run a separate AC. | Ducted heat pump If you were going to replace the AC anyway, the heat pump absorbs that cost. |
| Cold-weather performance | Cold-climate models hold capacity into the low teens Fahrenheit and below. | Full rated output at any outdoor temperature. | Gas furnace The furnace never loses capacity in the cold. A correctly sized cold-climate heat pump closes most, not all, of the gap. |
| Rebates and incentives | Eligible for most utility and state heat pump programs, worth up to several thousand dollars. | Rarely incentivised, and increasingly penalised in electrification programs. | Ducted heat pump Only count rebates that are actually open. We track that program by program. |
| Lifespan and maintenance | 12 to 18 years. Runs year-round, so more annual hours on the compressor. | 15 to 25 years for the furnace, plus a separate AC on its own clock. | Depends One machine to maintain versus two, against a furnace that typically lasts a few years longer. |
Ducted air source heat pump compared with a modern gas furnace across six criteria
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Upfront installed cost
Gas furnace- Ducted heat pump
- $9,500 to $22,000 for a ducted air source system, before incentives.
- Gas furnace
- $4,500 to $9,000 for a gas furnace, if a gas line already exists.
The furnace is cheaper to install almost everywhere. The gap narrows once rebates and the value of built-in cooling are counted.
-
Annual running cost
Depends- Ducted heat pump
- Low where electricity is cheap or the incumbent fuel is oil or propane.
- Gas furnace
- Low where natural gas is cheap and the climate is mild.
This is the whole game, and it flips by state. Model your ZIP in the calculator.
-
Cooling included
Ducted heat pump- Ducted heat pump
- Yes. A heat pump is an air conditioner that also heats.
- Gas furnace
- No. A furnace heats only, so you still buy and run a separate AC.
If you were going to replace the AC anyway, the heat pump absorbs that cost.
-
Cold-weather performance
Gas furnace- Ducted heat pump
- Cold-climate models hold capacity into the low teens Fahrenheit and below.
- Gas furnace
- Full rated output at any outdoor temperature.
The furnace never loses capacity in the cold. A correctly sized cold-climate heat pump closes most, not all, of the gap.
-
Rebates and incentives
Ducted heat pump- Ducted heat pump
- Eligible for most utility and state heat pump programs, worth up to several thousand dollars.
- Gas furnace
- Rarely incentivised, and increasingly penalised in electrification programs.
Only count rebates that are actually open. We track that program by program.
-
Lifespan and maintenance
Depends- Ducted heat pump
- 12 to 18 years. Runs year-round, so more annual hours on the compressor.
- Gas furnace
- 15 to 25 years for the furnace, plus a separate AC on its own clock.
One machine to maintain versus two, against a furnace that typically lasts a few years longer.
Every comparison we publish
Each one is a full page with the numbers, the assumptions and the cases where the answer is no.
- Most searched
Heat pump vs gas furnace
The comparison the gas industry would rather you did not model. We show the states where cheap gas still wins on running cost, and the states where the heat pump pulls clearly ahead.
Read the comparison - Biggest saving
Heat pump vs oil
Heating oil delivers heat at roughly $40 per million BTU. A cold-climate heat pump does it for about half that in Maine. This is the strongest operating-cost case in the country.
Read the comparison - Easiest win
Heat pump vs electric baseboard
Swapping resistance baseboard for a heat pump cuts the heating portion of the bill by roughly two thirds, because the heat pump moves three to four units of heat per unit of electricity.
Read the comparison - Layout choice
Ducted vs ductless heat pump
If you have good ducts a ducted system is usually cheaper and tidier. If you do not, a ductless mini split avoids thousands in duct work. The house usually makes the call.
Read the comparison - Premium option
Air source vs geothermal
Geothermal is more efficient and quieter, and costs two to four times as much to install. We show the runtime and rate conditions where the ground loop earns its premium.
Read the comparison - Hybrid
Dual fuel vs heat pump only
Keeping the furnace as a cold-snap backup and running the heat pump the rest of the year. In cheap-gas states with a real winter, the hybrid can beat either system alone.
Read the comparison - Effort vs ease
Heat pump vs pellet stove
Cheap, hands-on zone heat if pellets are cheap where you live, against hands-off whole-home heating and cooling. Two different jobs more than two versions of the same one.
Read the comparison
Ask installers to price this job, not a different one
The range is already on this site, and the calculator will give you a ZIP-level number for free. What you do not have is a bid that uses the same scope. We send your ZIP and that range to installers who work the market, and we tell them to quote that job. You get the emails. You decide.
- We attach the modeled range so the bid has to price that job, not a sales package
- You also get a one-page brief you can hand to any contractor you found yourself
- Phone is optional. No account. If nobody covers your ZIP yet, you still get the brief